[Note: Article originally published on Ardent Partner’s CPO Rising, visit publication.]
How tariffs and uncertainty are disrupting global trade
US tariffs and associated trade disruptions in 2025 have led to the highest effective tariff rates in nearly a century, increased consumer prices, reduced GDP growth, and significant shifts in trade flows.
While some sectors like manufacturing have seen modest gains, the broader implications including economic contraction, job losses, and higher costs for households, especially those with lower incomes, looms high.
Whether we’re witnessing a ‘new world order’ is yet to be decided, but what is certain is the global impact includes declining trade volumes and heightened risks for vulnerable economies. The effects of this uncertainty are evident in the data points and projections listed below.
This environment, marked by constant delays, adjustments and mixed signals about “reciprocal” tariffs, is generating pervasive uncertainty. If your procurement strategy relies on yesterday’s methods, you’re likely already feeling the pressure.
Impact of Uncertain U.S. Tariffs on Global Trade
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Procurement must respond to this new kind of risk
Beyond the direct trade policies, tariffs are causing significant supply chain strain.
Most middle-market firms expect disruptions, from higher raw material costs to shipping delays and shortages. Even services firms, which rely less on direct imports, widely expect higher material costs and product delays or shortages, highlighting the complex and interconnected nature of today’s businesses and their supply chains.
The challenge is that tariffs aren’t like typical procurement risks. They are
- Fast and volatile, often changing suddenly based on political decisions
- Government-driven, making them harder to influence or mitigate directly compared to operational issues
- Marked by regulatory complexity, requiring specialised knowledge in legal and compliance areas
- Have a direct financial impact, instantly raising the cost of imported goods and leading to margin compression
- Often trigger a strategic reassessment, forcing companies to rethink sourcing locations, suppliers, or even product design
- Create broad supply chain ripple effects, impacting multiple tiers
While a ‘wait and see’ approach may seem tempting, the ongoing policy uncertainty is already undermining both business confidence and consumer sentiment. As Kristin Savilia, CEO at Joor, put it, “Uncertainty kills economies”.
